One of California's most competitive legislative districts is back in play as Republicans fight to hold the seat, Democrats spend big to flip it, and independent voters emerge as the deciding force.
A Republican incumbent who breaks with his party more often than any other legislator faces a DSA-backed progressive Democrat in one of California's closest Assembly races.
In Kern County's Assembly District 35, nearly one in four voters are registered with no party preference, making independents the likely kingmakers in a closely competitive race between Democrat Andrae Gonzales and Republican Saul Ayon.
Independent voters are now "kingmakers" in competitive races, but campaigns treat them as data points, not people. Without direct conversation, candidates miss opportunities to engage the largest voting bloc.
Democratic Socialists and the California Working Families Party are fielding 25 candidates across California this fall, with 10 nearly certain to win. The races show how independent voters and the state's open primary system shape the left's push to move the Democratic Party further left.
A new California poll shows Prop. 39 has a narrow lead among likely voters, but undecided voters—mostly Democrats—could swing the race either way. An analysis of who is undecided reveals the true state of close contests.
In California's top-two primary system, Marin and Sonoma County's Assembly race between two Democrats will be decided by independent voters. Jackie Elward and Eric Lucan differ sharply on AI regulation, wealth taxes, and progressive priorities.
No Republican reached the November ballot in the race for Assembly District 68, so 68,000 independent voters will decide between DSA-recommended Jessie Lopez and moderate Democrat David Penaloza.
Assembly District 66 sends two Democrats to November with no Republican in the race, leaving 97,000 independents to choose between a DSA-backed progressive and a moderate with union and law enforcement support.
A DSA-recommended candidate and a moderate Democrat are the only two names on the ballot in California's Senate District 24, leaving independent and Republican voters to break the tie.
In California's East LA State Senate District 26, 144,000 independent voters will likely decide a general election between a socialist-backed candidate and a moderate Democrat, with no Republican on the ballot.
